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Wall Street Crash Hits the Underbelly of Global Capitalism
- SUKOMAL SEN,
General Secretary, TUI of Public & Allied Employees


[A PAPER SUBMITTED FOR THE SEMINAR – GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS & WORKING CLASS HELD AT COLOMBO ON 8 NOVEMBER, 2008]

Global Capitalism submerged in a grave crisis has started shivering.

“Staring into the abyss” was the apt summing up of the ‘wide-spread despondency’ that hit the headlines of The Daily Telegraph of London date line 30 September’08 quoting the German Finance Minister, Peer Steinbrack, just two weeks after the nightmare struck the Wall Street, the nerve centre of US economy on 15 September’08 sending shivers down the economic spines of the entire world.

As the biggest stock broker company of the world Merrill Lynch collapsed like a house of cards followed by crashing of a number of financial giants in US including the largest Insurance company of the world AIG, the US print and electronic media in one voice described the event as the biggest economic crash signaling a tortuous daylong economic recession after the biggest and longest ever economic crash and recession that engulfed the entire capitalist world in 1929.

With the Wall Street collapsing and the bailout plan of $700 billion initially,then some more billions of US dollars by the US Govt failing to touch even the fringe of the deepening crisis with Dow-Jones in USA, FTSE in UK and all other European and Asian stock markets suffering the largest ever points fall, wiping out 1.2 trillion US stocks, banks toppling like dominos, has set the world capitalism in deep convulsion.

Recapitulating the 1929 Great Depression

Let us recall the Great Depression which began in 1929. But July 9, 1932 was a day Wall Street would never wish to relive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41.63, down 91% from its level exactly three years earlier. The nation was in the grip of what the then U.S. Treasury Secretary Ogden Mills called "the psychology of fear." Industrial production was down 52% in three years; corporate profits had fallen 49%. Banks had become so illiquid, and depositors so terrified of losing their money, that check-writing ground to a halt. Most transactions that did occur were carried out in cash.

Just eight days before the Dow hit rock-bottom, a prominent investor Benjamin Graham of that time -- published "Should Rich but Losing Corporations Be Liquidated?" It was the last of a series of three incendiary articles in Forbes magazine in which Graham documented in stark detail the fact that many of America's great corporations were now worth more dead than alive.

More than one out of every 12 companies on the New York Stock Exchange, Graham calculated, were selling for less than the value of the cash and marketable securities on their balance sheets. "Banks no longer lend directly to big corporations," he reported, but operating companies were still flush with cash -- many of them so flush that a wealthy investor could theoretically take over, empty out the cash registers and the bank accounts, and own the remaining business for free.

Strikingly, today's conditions bear quite a close resemblance to what Graham described in the abyss of the Great Depression.

The facts testify to the wholesale destruction of the stock market's faith in the future. And, as Graham wrote in 1932, "In all probability [the stock market] is wrong, as it always has been wrong in its major judgments of the future."

According to many, the present crisis is graver than that of 1929.

Wall Street Crisis is a crisis of every street of the world – Severely hitting the working class and the poor – how UNO and ILO think about it.

Twenty million jobs will disappear by the end of next year as a result of the impact of the financial crisis on the global economy, a United Nations agency said on Monday.

Construction, real estate, financial services, and the auto sector are most likely to be hit, according to the International Labour Organisation's (ILO) estimate, which is based on International Monetary Fund projections for the world economy.

The toll on jobs could be even higher if IMF economic projections are cut, said ILO Director-General Juan Somavia.

"We have to talk about the financial crisis in terms of what happens to people and what happens to jobs and enterprises," he told reporters.

Somavia said the ILO, which brings together governments, employers and workers, wanted to steer discussions about the resolving the crisis towards job creation and other steps to promote the "real economy."

"It would be tragic to respond to a sub-prime crisis with sub-prime policies," he said.

He said resources should be pumped into the economy to stave off or mitigate recession, concentrating on employment-intensive sectors including small enterprises. The financial sector should also be steered back to its fundamental function of lending to entrepreneurs, according to the Chilean lawyer and diplomat.

Somavia said the financial sector's share in the profits of U.S. companies had risen to 41 percent last year from 5 percent in 1980. As a result, banks preferred to invest in financial transactions rather than lending to other productive sectors.

"So this system began to siphon off resources from the real economy process," he said. And listed non-financial companies came under pressure to match the returns of the financial sector, forcing them to cut costs -- often by freezing salaries or laying off staff -- rather than making long-term investments.

The global financial crisis will add at least 20 million extra people to the world's unemployed, a study by a United Nations agency has predicted.

This will bring the total number of people without work to 210 million by the end of next year, said the International Labor Organization (ILO).

ILO Director-General Juan Somavia said the figures showed that governments had to focus on individuals not just banks.

"From one point of this view this is called productivity increases. From a more profound point of view it means a worker becomes a commodity," he said.

He called for more efforts to help those affected cope with unemployment.'Care about people'

"We thought it was not good to talk about the financial crisis exclusively in financial terms," said Mr Somavia.

"We have to talk about the financial crisis in terms of what happens to people and in terms of what happens to jobs and enterprises.

"If we have enough resources to pump into the financial system, this is not the moment to say, 'Yes, but we don't have the resources to care about people'".

Mr Somavia added that while governments were right to try to end the "credit paralysis" in the first instance, attention should now be expanded to helping firms maintain jobs. In particular, he said governments should help small companies, since combined, these produced the most jobs.

Mr Somavia added that protecting people's pensions was also vital. Returning to the global economy, he said the sectors that were likely to see the most job losses were construction, the housing market, financial services, the wider service sector, and carmakers.

But what he has not said is the fact that working class of the world will have to rise in global action against offensive of the crisis. Public Service employees and the workers should rise up in protecting their social security and pension funds by vigorous struggle. Shocked and dazed, the US Govt and European Govts are projecting bail out plans.

Socializing the mistakes inflicting severe damage to free-market capitalism?

But about US Govt’s bailout plan? ‘After a period of wild market swings in which trust was at times wholly absent, governments save face having to socialize the mistakes of an entire industry in order to restore confidence’.- wrote John Plevda in Financial Times of 20 Sept./21 Sept’08.

President Bush’s administration’s multi-trillion dollar rescue plan for the financial system is set ‘at the cost of inflicting severe damage on the US model of free-market capitalism – continues the columnist of Financial Times. He further continues, ‘Heavy costs will be inflicted on the American tax payers who is now subsidizing Wall Street – and indeed financial institutions around the world in a bailout of unprecedented size …., the sequence of events that led to this extraordinary socialization of finance began with the defacto nationalization of Fannie Mac and Freddia Mae, the bankrupt government sponsored mortgage lenders at the heart of the US housing finance system and then came the takeover of Merril Lynch by Bank of America” while Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary allowed “Lehman Brothers the fourth largest US investment bank to go to the well”.

Thus when the much touted edifice of free-market capitalism is crumbling down, the US Govt, the notorious creator of this free-market model suffers a volte-face and ultimately resorts to large-scale state intervention to prevent the edifice from crumbling. But the monster of free-market capitalism that has been meticulously built up by successive US administrations is set to tumble down blowing off the myth of virtue of the free-market economic model of capitalism.

Turmoil in European Financial Market Deepens

“The global credit crisis has slammed into Europe with stunning violence triggering five major bank rescues and a near shutdown of the regime’s credit-markets” reports The Daily Telegraph of 30 September’08.

Here also the Govts are resorting to partial or full nationalization after the Dutch-Belgian bank Fortis, Britain’s Bradfords and Bingby and Iceland’s Glintis failed to roll over debts in the short term money maturity, while the French Govt pledged support for the Franco-Belgian lender Dexia after the show piece collapsed on reports of capital shortage.

Germany’s Hypo Real Estate, a commercial property lender was rescued with a Euro 35 billion life line from a consortium of local banks. ‘The inter-bank market has collapsed’, said Hanas Redekar, Currency Chief of BNP Paribas. Carsten Breznski, Chief Economist of ING in Brussels, said the global crisis was now engulfing Europe with devastating speed. The Europeans thought that the sub-prime crisis was just American rubbish that the US should clean up itself but now they are finding out that it is their rubbish too’, he said.

IMF data shows that European banks have 75 p.c. as much exposure to bad housing debt as US banks themselves. Moreover they have maintained bad debts from the British, Spanish, French, Dutch, Scandinavian and East European housing markets, where property bubbles reached even more extreme levels than in the US.

U.S. bends the rules of free markets – Angry Debate Rages

Most significantly critical analysis of this deeply engulfing financial crisis is made by the columnists of USA To-Day dated September 19, within 4 days of the Wall Street crash and the US Govt’s hurriedly proposed rescue plan.

The news paper caustically writes ‘WALL STREET IN CRISIS’, and then under the headline ‘US BENDS THE RULES OF FREE-MARKETS. NATION IS NOT PRACTICING WHICH IT PREACHED TO OTHER COUNTRIES’ elaborates the rescue plan of the US Govt by injecting huge amount of money from the public exchequers with biggest ever state intervention.

The news paper writes, ‘Throughout more than a decade of recurrent crises in nations such as Mexico, Russia and Thailand, the United States offered the same advice: Let the market solve the problem and get the government out of the way. Even when the consequences of such economic "tough love" included widespread joblessness, soaring poverty and domestic turmoil, Washington insisted on the rule that the market knew best’.

The paper continues, ‘Now that it's the United States battling financial conflagration, it turns out there are exceptions to that rule. Such as Uncle Sam's takeover of AIG, the world's largest insurance company. Such as the quasi-nationalization of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Such as putting $29 billion of taxpayer money at risk to facilitate JPMorgan Chase's acquisition of investment bank Bear Stearns.’

"We're not doing what we preached," says economist Sung Won Sohn of California State University.

Today's made-in-the-U.S. crisis differs from the emerging markets crises that swept Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil and Argentina from 1994 to 2001. The origins of those countries' problems were found in capricious global capital flows and a mismatch between excessive borrowing in foreign currency and the countries' maintenance of fixed exchange rates. The current U.S.-centered cataclysm originated in the mortgage market with widespread provision of low-interest-rate loans to people who couldn't afford them and their subsequent sale as securities to institutional investors who barely understood them – a speciality of a free-market economy for quick profits.

Free Market Financial Engines No Longer Working – Past and Present

But what yesterday and today have in common is a shared sense of financial engines that no longer are working. As the U.S. confronts its day of reckoning, the gap between the economic remedies it urged on others and its own actions are glaring.

In the 1990s, officials of the U.S. Treasury and the U.S.-backed International Monetary Fund urged the leaders of crisis-hit countries to embrace market-oriented policies designed to put their economies on sounder, long-term footing. But the recommendations — to slash government spending and privatize bloated state companies — meant genuine pain for millions and thus real political costs for leaders.

In 2001 in Argentina, millions of members of a thriving middle class were driven into poverty. In Indonesia in 1998, rioters burned shopping malls and storefronts in the capital city before driving longtime dictator Suharto into retirement. And in Russia that same year, the stock market lost three-quarters of its value and annual inflation topped 80 percent.

Officials in these countries at first resisted the harsh reforms, fearing exactly the sort of domestic instability that resulted. But they ultimately capitulated, realizing that their only hope of obtaining needed IMF financing was to comply with the global lender's conditions.

In demanding such painful changes, IMF and Treasury policymakers were guided by an economic philosophy known as the Washington Consensus. Emerging from the euphoria of the Berlin Wall's collapse and the embrace of the market by former socialist countries, the formula promulgated deregulation, privatization and open trade as the only path for countries seeking long-term prosperity.

Now, facing its own choice between the domestic pain associated with economic orthodoxy or postponing it by compromising long-cherished principles, pragmatic authorities have chosen the latter. Federal power has been stretched so far that the near unthinkable occurred within two months of the Crash: The Federal Reserve ran low on money, requiring the Treasury to stage a special $40 billion auction of government securities to replenish its coffers.

Even at this moment some of the US intellectuals feel jittery, there are other who still believe that if important financial institutions failed, market participants and lawmakers alike felt that market forces could restore order on their own, with only minimal government aid.

There is no doubt they are wrong.

But the Volta-face does not End

As the crisis further deepens, the jittery US Govt and the European Govts are now declaring more and more bailout plans throwing overboard their rules of free-market and no state intervention.

On October 13, Germany, France and Spain announced bailout package for their financial sectors that add up to 7.3 trillion US dollar The UK Govt has announced 650 billion dollar rescue plan to help to marooned banking system of the country. Added to US 1.7 trillion dollar that the US has either already spent, or plans to, to remedy the financial crisis, one will get a total of over 3.6 trillion dollars bailout money. That is more than double the entire spending of the Indian Govt since independence.

On 14 October’08, the US Govt further undertook a partial nationalization of its banking system announcing that it is pumping 250 billion dollars into nine top banks and scares of minor equity stakes to restore confidence and liquidity in a frozen financial world in what amounts to as every body agrees, the largest government intervention since the Great Depression beginning in 1929.

More significant is the fact that in return to minor equity-stake, it was revealed that the government will set conditions and control some aspects of the systems, including making key appointments, executive directors and decisions on raising dividends.

President Bush while announcing this decision said, ‘And the programme is carefully designed to encourage banks to buy these shares back from the Govt as the markets stabilized when they can raise capital from private investors. It means Mr. Bush seeks to assure his critics who feel that USA Govt is throwing off its free-market prescription that this is not so, it is only a temporary measure to administer a life-saving injection to the dying patient!

Wall Street Crash Severely Affects Asian and other Countries

The global credit crisis is starting to take its toll on consumers in a group of nations that have boosted the world's economy over the past few years: the big emerging economies of China, India, Russia and Brazil.

Global growth this decade has been powered by the economies of the U.S. and other Eurpean countries. As a troubled financial system sidelined the U.S., hopes remained that the developing nations could pick up the slack. Instead, the economies of the big four are slowing as consumers feel the pain emanating from the West.

In Russia, easy credit that powered consumer spending is now contracting. In India, outsourced jobs from Western financial companies are dwindling. In China, the locus of world attention in recent years, a stock-market collapse and deflating property prices are causing consumers to think twice about purchases. In Brazil, the prices for the commodities it exports are falling.

Growth in these large, continental economies is still much faster than in the U.S. or Europe. But indicators suggest that their newly affluent consumers aren't going to be holding up global growth on their own.

If this attitude spreads, it's bad news for the global economy. Although consumers in the big four emerging economies are still much poorer than the average American or European, their growing appetite for refrigerators, cars and flat-screen televisions during the past eight years has accounted for nearly as much growth in global demand as the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs. Demand from those countries had been expected to overtake the U.S. and steadily climb toward the total demand from the entire Group of Seven leading nations.

In some of these countries, credit is contracting just as it is in the developed world. In Russia, easy credit and higher real wages have fueled a consumer boom in the past few years. "Russia's consumer boom was largely due to easy credit," says Alexander Potavin, a senior analyst at Moscow brokerage Antanta-Pioglobal. "Now it's really difficult to get a loan from a bank."

The two biggest weak spots in the Chinese economy appear to be export industries that sell to the U.S., and the housing market. China also has some troubling indicators.

Leaders of Europe and Asia Call for Joint Economic Action

It in this dire situation, leaders from across Asia and Europe gathered in Beijing on Friday and Saturday and called for a coordinated response to the global financial crisis, in an event that underlined China’s growing role as a diplomatic counterweight to the United States, but fell short of offering specific solutions.

In the difficult balance between preserving financial innovation and ensuring adequate regulation, the presidents, prime ministers and other leaders clearly tilted toward more regulation. A joint statement at the conference did not suggest how to accomplish this, but noted that “necessary and timely measures should be taken.”

 The statement did not exclude innovation, but indicated the preference of the attendees: “Leaders were of the view that to resolve the financial crisis it is imperative to handle properly the relationship between financial innovation and regulation and to maintain sound macroeconomic policy. They recognized the need to improve the supervision and regulation of all financial actors, in particular their accountability.”

China said that it would attend the international conference of G-20 in Washington on Nov. 15 that President Bush has organized. But without directly criticizing the United States.

President Bush and his advisers have also accepted a need for more regulation in some areas. But in a subtle yet potentially important difference of tone that reflects many years of more market-oriented policies in the United States than in Europe or Asia, the Bush administration has repeatedly said that regulation should not prevent banks and other financial institutions from finding effective yet safe ways to meet their customers’ needs.
David H. McCormick, the under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs, said in a speech in Hong Kong on Wednesday that, “we have undoubtedly learned that our own financial system is in need of reform.”

But he later added, “It would be unfortunate if, as a result of this turmoil, policy makers in China mistakenly abandon their pursuit of financial sector innovation and liberalization that has been so important to supporting China’s growth in productivity and macroeconomic stability.” He was so afraid of any rethinking by China of her economic policy.

The event in Beijing drew heads of state and other top officials of the 27 member countries of the European Union, the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well as China, Japan, South Korea, India and Pakistan.

Indian economy is going to be hit badly. The economic crisis in India would have been uncontrollable but for the strong resistance of the Left parties against further opening and liberalizing the Indian Economy according to IMF-World Bank and Bush administration dictates. But even then, the Govt is trying to privatize the statutory pension fund and opening the public sector Banks and Insurance industries.

The Vulnerability of Arab economies to the global crisis

The violent financial storm now descending on the Middle East threatens to derail the economic ambitions of the oil-rich Gulf states and wipe out the modest economic growth and progress witnessed in the non-oil producing areas of the region. Perhaps even more troubling, the crisis has exposed the vulnerability and inadequacy of the institutional foundations of Middle Eastern economies.

To be sure, the Gulf states have an advantage over other Middle Eastern countries thanks to their huge budget surplus, funds which can act as a cushion against heightened global volatility and further drops in oil prices.

The non-oil producers of the region will probably suffer the most from this current financial turmoil. Like the Gulf states, they've witnessed respectable economic growth but have failed to effectively shift their economies toward allocative and productive efficiency. From Morocco to Egypt, non-oil still have the world's lowest employment rates. A deep and prolonged international recession threatens to badly hit their main job creation industry (tourism) and squeeze out funding for projects that are vital to sustaining economic growth and containing mounting unemployment.

Frantic Effort to Salvage the Situation

National governments around the world are frantically trying to do what is necessary to prevent another major financial institution from failing, the International Monetary Fund's managing director said, although he didn't specify any measures. Series of meetings among the heads of the Govts like European big 5 G-7 and other bilateral discussions were already held and President Bush wants G-20 meet and Washington on 15 November’08 to find ways to salvage the siotuation. Huge funds from the Govt treasury and the Federal Bank in USA, Reserve Bank of India and in other countries, similar measures are being taken to pump in huge amount of funds to increase the liquidity of the Banks and save them from bankruptcy.

Argentina’s Laudable Step to Nationalize the Pension Fund to Protect the Workers’ Interest.

At a time when most governments worldwide are unwilling to take a lesson from the economic meltdown that has wiped off trillions of dollars from pension funds, Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez on 21 October 2008 in a brace decision signed a bill for nationalization of the private pension system worth U.S. $30 billion. Labor leaders and lawmakers from the ruling Peronist party and some opposition groups applauded the takeover as a way to guarantee pensions at a time of global market turmoil. Argentine’s pension accounts were managed by 10 private pension administrators, the country's biggest institutional investors. Each year there are more than $4 billion in contributions to these pension funds. The private pension system has been unpopular due to high commissions and because there is not a guaranteed minimum pension.

Some Lessons

What is the lesson? Firstly, fearsome but unsustainable character of the free market economy of capitalism with the dominance of Finance Capital, especially the neo-liberal economic agenda of World Bank-IMF vigorously pushed through by the US administration and its financial system has now come out most nakedly. Hatred against state intervention and financing for the well being of the people, for their jobs - health, education, housing –-and all other bare necessities, hatred against public sector and public institutions, any social security measures for the working people by state institutions, propagating too absolute reliance in the market forces, have at last rendered the world economy including that of India to such a an extremely critical situation. Already according to US Labour Deptt. report 7,60,000 jobs have been lost and already 10 lakh people have been rendered homeless. From US and most other countries daily reports are pouring in of retrench and job lose.

Secondly, now, even the US economic experts are publicly stating that Wall Street (where US Stock Exchange and other main financial institutions are situated in New York) economic crash has set off the biggest of world economic recession since the most fatal and largest economic depression that began in 1929 with Stock Market and banking crashes causing huge unemployment and enormous economic difficulties for the common people world over.

Thirdly, the total falsity and stupidity of worshipping the Stock Market as the biggest god or Avtar of the capitalist system is thoroughly exposed. Govt of India, for that matter, all capitalist governments consider that only the measures to fattening and swelling the Stock Market as will be reflected by its index, such as Sensex will stand out as the only standard of economic progress of the country.

Lastly, and most importantly, Marx’s theory of Capitalist Crisis and later which type of crisis can take place in the era of imperialism and finance capital has been explained by noted Marxist scholars like Paul Sweezy and other Marxist scholars. Even John Maynard Keyens, the noted bourgeois economist on whose prescriptions, the capitalist economy again revived in the aftermath of Great Depression, dwelt upon the subject in his own fashion particularly in his volume The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money in chapter 12 in particular where he explained the state of confidence and he writes ‘Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. Even this noted bourgeois economist hinted at in what can do ‘the bubble in whirlpool of speculation’. The Wall Street crash is a unique example which can happen when the bubble bursts.

Even Paul Krugman, the latest Nobel Laureate in Economics had forecast in 2001 itself, the impending crisis in US economy as it has unfolded today.

Marx’s Theory of Capitalist Crisis

With the onset of the crisis, the capitalist state leaders have become totally confused how to get out of this morass of crisis. Interestingly, they are trying to find a way out from Karl Marx’s works. It is reported that even the venerable Pope of Vatican, the religious head of the Christian world, one of the most reactionary and conservative state leader of Europe, Mr. Sarkozy, President of France, the Finance Minister of Germany which is also a highly conservative Govt are studying Das Capital of Karl Marx to find how analysed capitalism. This is very interesting that these people were the worst haters of Karl Marx and his idea of socialism.

Marx’s theory of the necessity as opposed to the possibility of regular crises in capitalist economies draws upon the interaction between competition, class conflicts and the law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall (LTRPF). It is sufficient to observe that crisis can occur apart from immediate movements in the rate of profit, indeed, they can be due to factors originating from outside the circuit of capital, for example social, political, financial or technical upheavals. The possibility of erosion in the profit rate because of the inability of capital to ‘restructure’ to achieve higher profitability, and the fragility of the stock exchange to ‘bad’ news and its repercussions for economic reproduction, are all too familiar. Other potential causes of crisis include price crashes due to overproduction in key industrial sectors, the collapse of important financial institutions, and instability induced by foreign trade or political turmoil at home.

Marx argues that crises can always arise because of the contradiction between the production of use values for profit and their individual or, more exactly, private consumption.

Marx explained in Capital Vol-3 that in capitalism there is an inherent barrier in Capitalist’s expansion. Capitalist production seeks continuously to overcome these immanent barriers but overcomes them only by means of which again placed these barriers in its way and on a more formidable scale. The real barrier of capitalist production is Capital itself.

In the present case of global economic crisis set off by Wall Street Crash exactly corresponds to this analysis of Marx of Capitalist crisis.

Marx explained this situation in another place of Capital Vol-3

In sum, crises of Capitalism are unavoidable. In the present case, crisis caused by Wall Street Crash are no ordinary crisis. It hits the underbelly of global capitalism. So the subject needs a deeper probe. Working class will have to deeply go into the causes and nature of this grave crisis of world capitalism and devise their appropriate course of action. Free market capitalism is collapsing. With Capitalism’s maneuverility it may recover to some extent. But this way it cannot survive.

So, for the working class, this grave crisis again presents the idea of socialism in a more vibrant way.

 

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